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9月开启的好意思联储降息既给寰球经济带来了机遇，也注入了更多的不笃定性。本期专题商榷好意思元降息周期下的全国经济走向。本篇报谈从交易角度探索好意思联储降息对中国制造业出口的影响。

好意思联储降息对好意思国国内的经济复苏是否会产生积极成果尚有待不雅察，而关于出口型中国制造业企业而言，这一方案已然带来了切实的影响。

The effectiveness of the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts in spurring the U.S. economic recovery remains uncertain. However, for China’s export-oriented manufacturing sector, this decision has already had significant impacts.

中国相差口银行计谋筹谋部总司理杜希江以为我国相差口企业濒临三大风险：一是汇兑风险，即主要货币汇率波动；二是商场风险，即入口方需乞降商品订价变化；三是国别和区域风险，即不同国度和地区受到影响的进度。

According to Du Xijiang, General Manager of the Strategic Planning Department at the Export-Import Bank of China, China’s export and import companies face three primary risks: exchange rate risk from currency fluctuations, market risk from demand and pricing changes, and country or regional risks due to varying impacts across nations and regions.

在寰球经济环境充满不笃定性的情况下，如安在货币政策调度中寻找应付策略，已成为每一个中海外向型企业所必须面对的问题。

In a global economic environment rife with uncertainties, finding ways to adapt to monetary policy adjustments has become an essential issue for every outward-facing Chinese enterprise.

出海中企的双重压力：

利润压缩，需求减少

Chinese Exporters Face Dual Pressure:

Profit Compression and Declining Demand

好意思元贬值带来的东谈主民币增值，是中国制造业出口企业濒临的最径直的挑战之一。东谈主民币增值意味着企业在国际商场的家具价钱相对高潮，这平定了中国制造家具的国际竞争力。此外，很多出口企业以好意思元结算，东谈主民币增值则使得出口收入折算成东谈主民币后减少，径直影响到企业的利润水平。

The depreciation of the U.S. dollar, resulting in a stronger Chinese yuan, poses one of the most direct challenges for Chinese manufacturing exporters. Yuan appreciation means Chinese products are effectively more expensive on the international market, which weakens their competitiveness. Additionally, since many export companies settle in U.S. dollars, the stronger yuan reduces their income when converted back to RMB, directly impacting profitability.

在广东从事制冷引诱坐褥的业务司理张云对此深有叹惜。他所在的公司主营雪柜和超市冷藏柜等引诱，主要出口到北好意思和欧洲商场。好意思联储降息后的汇率波动，让公司面最后刚劲的营收压力。他示意：“咱们订立的大巨额订单王人所以好意思元结算，东谈主民币增值后，正本一笔订单能换回的东谈主民币数额变少了。关于那些依然锁定的永恒订单，利润空间被大大压缩。”

Zhang Yun, a Sales Manager in the refrigeration equipment industry in Guangdong, experiences these pressures firsthand. His company primarily exports refrigerators and supermarket cooling cabinets to North American and European markets. The recent exchange rate fluctuations following the Fed’s rate cut have put tremendous pressure on revenue. He notes, “Most of our contracts are settled in U.S. dollars. When the yuan appreciates, the amount we receive in yuan decreases. For long-term contracts with locked-in prices, profit margins shrink significantly.”

2024年东谈主民币兑换好意思元走势图（图源MSN）

USD to CNY Exchange Rate Trend in 2024

(Image Source: MSN)

好意思联储降息对中国制造业出口企业的影响不单是局限于中好意思之间的交易，它通过汇率波动和成本商场的四百四病，影响到了中国与寰球多个商场的交易干系。佛山的灯具坐褥企业的业务员万涛也提到，天然他们的主要商场在东南亚和中东地区，但好意思元贬值使得部分客户的采购成本增多，禁绝了采购需求。“很多东南亚国度的货币与好意思元挂钩，好意思元贬值导致这些国度的货币贬值，径直影响了当地客户的购买力。”

The impact of the Fed’s rate cut on Chinese manufacturing exporters is not limited to Sino-U.S. trade alone. Through exchange rate fluctuations and the ripple effect in capital markets, it affects China’s trade relationships with multiple global markets. Wan Tao, a sales representative at a lighting manufacturing company in Foshan, mentions that while their primary markets are in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, the dollar’s depreciation has increased some clients’ purchasing costs, dampening demand. “Currencies in many Southeast Asian countries are pegged to the U.S. dollar, so when the dollar depreciates, these countries’ currencies also devalue, directly reducing local customers’ purchasing power,” he explains.

汇率波动应付：

锁汇、家具升级、增多入口

Coping with Exchange Rate Fluctuations:

Hedging, Product Upgrades,

and Increasing Imports

面对汇率波动，部分企业依然遴荐了一系列措施来缩小风险。汇率锁定是其中较为常见的金融器具之一。林伊所在的智能柜制造公司主要出口到越南。他指出，公司在应付汇率波动时，时时和会过银行提前锁定汇率，确保订单在结算时粗略保抓较为褂讪的利润。“咱们出口的智能柜触及较长的订单周期，十分是一些大额订单，必须提前作念好汇率对冲，贯注结算时汇率变化带来的不笃定性。”

In response to exchange rate fluctuations, some companies have taken steps to mitigate risk. Forward contracts are a common financial tool for this purpose. Lin Yi, who works at a smart locker manufacturing company primarily exporting to Vietnam, explains that his company usually locks in exchange rates with banks to ensure relatively stable profits on transactions. “Our smart locker exports involve long order cycles, especially for large orders. We must hedge against exchange rate fluctuations to avoid the uncertainty that can arise during settlement.”

除了使用金融器具灭绝汇率风险，部分企业也启动调度本身的出口家具结构，减少对低附加值家具的依赖，从而进步利润空间。中山从事户外家具坐褥的何斌提到，公司在应付国际商场不笃定性时，逐步将业务重点转向研发高附加值家具。他示意：“咱们曩昔以廉价取胜，但咫尺外部商场波动较大，公司徐徐减少廉价家具的出口比例，转而聚焦于车载雪柜等高附加值家具，以进步企业的商场竞争力。”

Apart from using financial instruments to offset exchange rate risk, some companies are adjusting their export product portfolios to reduce dependency on low-value-added products, thereby enhancing profit margins. He Bin, who works in the outdoor products sector in Zhongshan, shares that his company has shifted its focus to high-value-added products to better navigate international market uncertainties. He states, “We used to compete on low prices, but now, with greater external market volatility, the company is reducing its export share of low-priced products and focusing on high-value-added items like car refrigerators to boost competitiveness.”

何斌所在公司的出售的户外家具 (图源受访者)

Outdoor products sold by He Bin’s company

(Image Source: Interviewee)

尽管好意思联储降息带来了汇率波动和成本压力，但也让部分企业看到了其中的机遇。东谈主民币增值的同期，好意思元贬值使得入口成本下落，关于那些依赖入口原材料和引诱的企业来说，这是一大利好。张云提到：“咱们坐褥制冷引诱所需的部分高端零部件来自海外，比如高端压缩机，好意思元贬值让这些入口零部件的成本缩小，障碍减轻了部分坐褥成本的压力。”

Despite the pressures from exchange rate volatility and rising costs following the Fed’s rate cuts, some companies also see opportunities in the situation. While the yuan appreciates, the dollar’s depreciation lowers the cost of imported goods, benefiting companies that rely on imported raw materials and equipment. Zhang Yun mentions, “Some high-end components, like advanced compressors used in refrigeration equipment, are imported. The dollar’s depreciation reduces the cost of these imports, which partially eases production cost pressures.”

好意思国波士顿联邦储备银行行长苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）10月8日波士顿的演讲中说起，好意思联储“或需进一步调度政策场地”，并掂量年内或还将扩充两次各25个基点的降息。但她亦重申，好意思联储的方案旅途非一成不变，将细腻依托经济数据天真应变。

In an October 8 speech in Boston, Susan Collins, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, suggested the Fed “may need to make further policy adjustments” and projected two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year. However, she also emphasized the Fed’s flexibility, noting that its policy path is “not set in stone” and will be responsive to economic data.

好意思联储的货币政策调度不仅响应了好意思国经济濒临的逆境，也预示着寰球商场的不褂讪性。关于中国制造业出口企业来说，如安在寰球经济结构调度中保抓竞争力，将是畴昔几年必须应付的要津问题。

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy adjustments reflect the economic challenges in the U.S. and indicate potential instability in global markets. For Chinese manufacturing exporters, maintaining competitiveness amid these structural shifts in the global economy will be a crucial challenge in the coming years.

注：文中受访者均为假名

参考信息：

[1] 央视新闻《好意思联储降息50个基点！此次降息意味着什么？会带来哪些影响？》

https://news.cnr.cn/sq/20240920/t20240920_526910520.shtml

[2] 新华财经《好意思地方联储官员：好意思联储需进一步降息以保护好意思国经济》

https://www.cnfin.com/yw-lb/detail/20241009/4116296_1.html