发布日期:2024-11-22 21:41 点击次数:70
《鸠合国时势变化框架契约》缔约方会议第二十九次会议(COP29)于11月11日在阿塞拜疆皆门巴库开幕。
会议的主要诡计是制定和执行既有弘愿又切实可行的倡议,并鼓励列国将其转动为国度计谋,力图在本世纪末将世界气温升幅收尾在1.5摄氏度以内。第一次缔约方会议在柏林举行于今已近三十年,大会的总体诡计仍然是加强国际发奋,将世界气温升幅收尾在工业化前水平,以免地球际遇撤销性灾难。在本年的会议上,列国重心体恤若何拓展新的资金开始。
鉴于当今竣事《巴黎协定》设定的碳减排诡计进展迟缓,世界亟需选择更有劲措施,引起普通体恤并眩惑更多投资,共同支吾时势变化。从COP29初步文献和询查来看,会议决议可能会敦促列国进一步提升国度自主孝敬力度,在碳减排上迈出坚实依次。列国将被条件在2025年前提交更新的国度自主孝敬决议,迟缓但坚韧地淘汰化石燃料,增多可再纯真力的使用。
主持国阿塞拜疆祈望各参会国在来岁年底前简略制定并通过各自的国度允洽筹画,命令列国进一步加大春联系筹画的资金维持。此外,COP29还命令世界金融机构与私营部门加大时势融资维持,饱读吹绿色篡改投资。会议还强调新树立的“损结怨毁伤基金”必须得到强化,以维持脆弱社区,相称是小岛屿发展中国度和最不弘扬国度的脆弱社区。
COP29瞻望将批准14项倡议,其中最为遑急的一项等于在巴库树立时势行动融资基金。看成主持国和化石燃料分娩国,阿塞拜疆已示意空隙为树立该基金提供首笔资金。该基金的诡计是从化石燃料分娩国和公司募得10亿好意思元运行资金,主要用于投资可再纯真力,维持发展中国度的时势名堂。该基金的统共收益皆将用于再投资新名堂。
字据以往估算及面前趋势,世界二氧化碳排放量瞻望将很快达到峰值。减排进展却依旧滞后。若是再不大幅减排,到本世纪末,世界平均气温可能高潮2.4摄氏度,给东谈主类带来灾难性后果。然而,若能竣事要道诡计,举例到 2030 年竣事可再纯真力发电量增多三倍、动力效果提升一倍,则有望大大减轻排放差距。
字据《巴黎协定》,列国政府需在2025年前设定一个新的时势融资诡计。该诡计被称为新的集体量化诡计,瞻望将在巴库时势大会得到批准。字据时势融资问题寥落高等别民众组2022年的文书,2025年前绝大多数发展中国度每年将需要约1万亿好意思元,2030年前每年将需要约2.4万亿好意思元,才能竣事其时势融资诡计。
尽管绿色转型融资濒临重重勤苦,可再纯真力投资仍在合手续增长。本年,世界动力投资总数瞻望将初次打破3万亿好意思元,其中约2万亿好意思元将进入清洁本事,涵盖可再纯真力、电动汽车、核能、电网、储能、低排放燃料、动力效果和热泵等领域。剩余资金将流向煤炭、自然气和石油等传统动力领域。
前年,东谈主类在动力投资领域迎来历史性时候——可再纯真力和电网基础才智的投资总数初次跨越化石燃料。然而,除中国际, 其它新兴经济体在向清洁动力转型的经由中仍然濒临资金严重不及的问题。在这些国度,对清洁动力领域的投资远远不及以维持其日益增长的动力需求,崇高的融资成本贬抑了新名堂的斥地。
值得驻防的是,2015年达成《巴黎协定》时,可再纯真力发电的总投资是化石燃料发电的两倍。本年,这一差距瞻望将扩大至十倍,太阳能发电投资将跨越统共其他发电本事的总和。太阳能电板板价钱速即下落,刺激了大皆新投资的涌入,瞻望本年太阳能发电投资将达到5000亿好意思元。
在太阳能、锂电板和电动汽车苍劲需求的鼓励下,中国脉年在清洁动力领域的投资瞻望至少将达到6750亿好意思元。欧洲和好意思国紧随后来,其清洁动力投资额瞻望差别为3700亿好意思元和3150亿好意思元。这三个经济体的投资总数占世界清洁动力投资的三分之二以上,显袒露洋际成本在新兴动力领域进入上的显赫地域互异。因此咱们需要加强国际相助,竣事愈加平衡的可再纯真力发展。
以下为著述英文版
The 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), better known as COP29, kicked off in Baku, Azerbaijan on November 11.
The event's main objective is to develop and implement ambitious yet realistic recommendations that participating countries will approve as national policies. These policies aim to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Nearly 30 years after the first Conference of the Parties (COP) in Berlin, the goal remains to enhance international efforts to restrict global warming to pre-industrial levels and prevent catastrophic damage to the planet. At this year's conference, countries are focusing on discovering new funding sources.
Given the current delays in achieving carbon emission reduction targets set by the Paris Agreement, urgent actions are needed to generate worldwide attention and additional investment to combat climate change. Preliminary documents and discussions at COP29 indicate that the resolution will likely urge all countries to expand further their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to reduce carbon emissions. Countries will be required to submit updated documents by 2025, emphasizing a gradual yet decisive phase-out of fossil fuels and an increase in the use of renewable energy.
The host country Azerbaijan expects all participants to develop and approve their national adaptation plans (NAPs) by next year, highlighting the importance of increasing funding for these plans. Additionally, COP29 urges global financial institutions and the private sector to enhance climate finance and encourage investment in green innovation. The conference is also emphasizing plans to strengthen the recently established Loss and Damage Fund to support vulnerable communities, particularly in small island developing states and the least developed countries.
COP29 is expected to approve 14 initiatives, one of the most significant being the proposal to establish a Climate Finance Action Fund (CFAF) based in Baku. As the host country and a fossil fuel producer, Azerbaijan has indicated its willingness to make the initial contribution to establishing that fund. This facility aims to receive an initial contribution of $1 billion from fossil fuel-producing countries and companies. The fund's primary goal is to invest in renewable energy and support climate projects in developing nations. It is planned that any profits received by the fund will be reinvested in further projects.
Based on previous estimates and current trends, global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to peak soon. However, progress in reducing these emissions is still behind schedule. Without significant reductions in emissions, the planet's average global temperature could increase by 2.4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, leading to catastrophic consequences for humanity. However, achieving essential energy targets, such as tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling the rate of energy efficiency by 2030, could significantly help to reduce the emissions gap.
Under the Paris Agreement, governments need to set a new climate finance target by 2025. The target, also known as the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), is anticipated to be approved in Baku. According to the 2022 report from the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance, most developing countries will need approximately $1 trillion per year by 2025 and $2.4 trillion annually by 2030 to meet their climate finance objectives.
Despite significant negative trends in financing the green transition, investment in renewable energy continues to rise. Total global energy investment is expected to exceed $3 trillion this year for the first time, with approximately $2 trillion allocated to clean technologies, including renewables, electric vehicles, nuclear energy, grids, storage, low-emission fuels, energy efficiency, and heat pumps. The remaining funds will be directed toward coal, gas, and oil.
Last year, humanity reached a historic milestone when total investments in renewables and grid infrastructure surpassed spending on fossil fuels for the first time. However, emerging economies, excluding China, are still significantly underfunded in their transition to clean energy generation. Such investment is far less than required to meet the growing energy demand in these countries, where high capital costs hinder the development of new projects.
It is important to note that when the Paris Agreement was reached in 2015, total investment in renewable energy for electricity generation was double that of fossil fuel power plants. This year, that figure is projected to increase tenfold, with solar power investments exceeding all other electricity generation technologies combined. Solar power investment is expected to reach $500 billion this year, driven by rapidly falling solar panel prices that encourage new investments.
China is set to invest at least $675 billion in clean energy this year, fueled by strong demand for solar power, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles. Europe and the U.S. follow, with clean energy investments of $370 billion and $315 billion, respectively. Together, these three economies account for over two-thirds of global clean energy investment, highlighting significant disparities in international capital flows into the new energy and the necessity to strengthen international cooperation to achieve more balanced renewable energy development.